Global Markets

The Different world  index's 




BSE Sensex: BSE Sensex is a "market capitalisation-weighted" index of 30 stocks representing a sample of large, well-established and financially sound companies. The Sensex is calculated using a market capitalisation-weighted methodology. As per this methodology, the level of index at any point of time reflects the total market value of 30 component stocks relative to a base period. (The market capitalisation of a company is determined by multiplying the price of its stock by the number of shares issued by the company).

DJIA: DJIA is a price-weighted index based on 30 stocks. The companies incorporated in the calculation of the index right now are major factors in their respective industries or sectors, and their stocks are widely held by individuals and institutional investors. A stock is typically added only if it has an excellent reputation, demonstrates sustained growth, is of interest to a large number of investors and accurately represents the sector(s) covered by the average.



http://basicfinancelessons.com/investing-101/stock-market-indexes/

Hang Seng: Hang Seng is a market capitalisation weighted index based on 33 major stocks of Stock Exchange of Hong Kong (SEHK). The Hang Seng Index (HSI) is a well-known benchmark for the performance of the Hong Kong stock market.

FTSE-100: This the most widely quoted and popular index for tracking the London stock exchange. The index comprises of the shares of the top 100 U.K. companies ranked by market capitalisation. FTSE-100 is a market capitalisation-weighted index, re-weighted every day.




The Global Compact and Exchanges are exploring collaborative initiatives, such as disseminating information on the Global Compact to listed companies, in an effort to advance the tenets of good corporate citizenship and trust-building in society



The equity markets of USA and UK are well developed and integrated well with other domestic sectors and volume of trading is also very high. Hence, their markets are unperturbed by the disturbances in other markets. However, any disturbance occurring in the former are absorbed by the markets of the less developed and the emerging countries. Empirical studies conducted along these lines also support this fact. Paper by Botha and Apostolellis says that, “application of the impulse response functions reveals that the US is the dominant market and that all responses to shocks in the US market are absorbed by the emerging markets rapidly…this analysis however indicates that the converse does not hold.”


Because the world is has gone through one of its worst bear markets since the Great Depression, there is an even greater need to study past bull and bear markets to make long-term decisions about investing in the stock market.  This Guide and the accompanying Excel worksheet provide a history of bull and bear markets in the world’s primary stock markets.
            Information on bull and bear markets in the United States is readily available from other sources, but we have introduced several innovations to help investors better understand the nature of bull and bear markets.  Most sources only provide the beginning and ending dates for bull and bear markets based upon a price index, but we provide

  1. A history of bull and bear markets in the major stock markets outside of the United States
  2. A history of bull and bear markets on a total return basis
  3. A history of bull and bear markets on a total return, inflation-adjusted basis

By providing information on other countries, investors can see how the United States stock market has performed relative to other stock markets.  Dividends are an important part of investor returns.  Ignoring them doesn’t provide a true picture of how much investors would have earned during bull or bear markets. This is truer in the past than it is today because dividend yields are much lower today than they were in the past.  Just looking at the price index ignores about one-third of investor returns.
Similarly, adjusting for inflation is also important.  Inflation has been higher since World War II, and was especially strong in the 1940s and 1970s.  Inflation reduces the size of bull markets and increases the size of bear markets.  In some cases, bull markets have simply been attempts to keep up with inflation. For example, the return index for France rose by 321% between July 1945 and October 1948, but adjusting for inflation, investors actually lost 9% during those three years because inflation wiped out the capital gains and dividends investors received.
The one variable we do not factor in is taxes.  Tax rates vary from one country to another, vary from state to state, vary over time, vary between different income tax brackets, and differ for dividends and for capital gains.  Given all of these complications, we have left taxes out of our calculations.  All data are based upon before-tax returns.

Dow Jones Wilshire 5000 Total Market Index
Commonly referred to as the Wilshire 5000 or Total Market Index, this is the broadest index for the U.S. equities market. The Wilshire 5000 is a market capitalization-weighted index of all actively traded U.S. stocks. If you know of a public stock that is listed and has readily available price data, chances are it is included in this Total Market Index.


Though we cannotconclude the existence of perfect total integration among the world markets given the limitations of our analysis. However, we can unambiguously assert that over time, with the opening up of economies and integration and strengthening of domestic financial markets, the benefits from asset diversification are getting exhausted. In the short run an investor might make some windfall profits due to lag in the transmission of shock from one market to the other but in the long run such opportunities are getting eroded. 

detailed information on sources is provided in the Encyclopedia of Global Financial Markets.


Australia


            Australia shows a low correlation with other stock markets because of its greater dependence on resource-based companies and because of its geographical distance from the United States and Europe.  We have used the All-Ordinaries Index for both price and return indices, and data from the Sydney stock exchange before 1958.
            The 1972-1974 bear market proved to be the worst for Australia in this century.  The declines of the Great Depression were mitigated by the strength in Gold and other resource stocks.  For the most part, the Australian stock market has been very resilient during the past century, having very strong bull markets and relatively mild bear markets with no declines over 50% on a total return basis.  The reliance on resource stocks has also served the ASX well in the current bear market.  It was the only major exchange to hit a new high in 2002. 
The return data indicate that Australia enjoyed a continuous bull market from 1875 to 1929 as dividends sufficiently covered any decline in stocks during that period of time.  However, since the Lamberton data do not include all stocks traded in Australia, there is probably some degree of survivor bias in these numbers.

Canada


            Canada’s economy is tied to the US economy, but it relies more on resources than the United States does.  These two factors drive the Canadian stock market more than anything else.  The Montreal Stock Exchange has the longest daily data for any overall index of the Canadian market, but in 2000 the Montreal Stock Exchange stopped trading stocks and discontinued their stock market index.  Consequently, indices from both the Montreal and Toronto Stock Exchanges are provided for Canada.
            Canada suffered its worst stock market decline during the 1929-1932 bear market when the Investor’s Index of stocks declined by 80%, almost as much as the decline in the United States. The 1973-1974 bear market was milder than in the United States because of the role of oil and gold stocks in Canada. The 2000-2002 bear market in Canadian stocks is the worst decline in the Canadian stock market since the 1929-32 bear market.
http://blackbull.instablogs.com/entry/a-global-stock-market-crash-alert/

A brief history of the principal causes of past bear markets is provided below.  For more information see either 101 Years on Wall Street by John Dennis Brown, or Wall Street and the Stock Markets by Peter Wyckoff.

1835-1843            The first real panic caused by falling land prices, an overexpansion of credit, and the bursting of the canal building bubble.
1847-1848            The crisis in Europe in 1848 affected US stocks.
1852-1857            A default in California and a banking crisis between 1853 and 1855 culminated in the “Banker’s Panic” of 1857 as the California Gold Bubble ended.
1864-1865            The Civil War ended leading to deflation
1872-1877            The failure of Jay Cooke & Co. and the collapse of rail speculation closed the NYSE for 12 days in 1873 and led to a long-term recession.
1881-1885            The market initially fell after Garfield was shot, and a 3-year economic depression followed.
1887-1896            Railroad wars, silver legislation, the Baring Crisis and other events kept the market in a bearish mode
1901-1903            The “Nipper” Panic caused by the corner on Northern Pacific Railroad stock, President McKinley was assassinated, and the “Rich Man’s Panic” in 1903 caused by high interest rates and an overissuance of securities.
1907                                   The bursting of the Copper stock bubble and the Financial Panic of 1907
1912-1914            Pre-World War jitters
1916-1917            Investors were scared that either peace or war could slow economic activity
1919-1921            Post-World War I Depression and Deflation
1929-1932            The 1929 Stock Market Crash, Banking Panic, the Great Depression
1934-1935            The market falls back after recovering from 1932 lows
1937-1938            Recession within the Great Depression
1938-1942            World War II Begins as the Axis powers attack the Allies
1946-1947            Post-World War II Recession and Deflation
1957                 Concerns over Sputnik, Hungary and Eisenhower’s heart attack
1961-1962            The “Kennedy Panic” over confrontation between Kennedy and the steel industry
1968-1970            Concerns over Viet Nam, inflation and domestic problems
1973-1974            OPEC, Watergate, inflation and recession
1976-1978            Stagflation, budget deficits and trade deficits
1980-1982            High interest rates, the second OPEC crisis, recession, inflation
1987                 An overvalued market and program trading lead to the 1987 stock market crash
1990                 The Gulf War begins and Japan’s stock market bubble ends
1998                 Russia defaults and Long Term Capital Management crashes
2000-2002         The Internet bubble, an overvalued market, recession, corporate malfeasance



Global growth in SME Capital Markets
Recent years have seen the emergence of numerous SME exchanges or listing programs, and these are playing an increasingly significant role in investment markets, not only in North America and Western Europe but also in many less developed parts of the world.  This is a welcome development for a number of reasons.  Greater opportunities are being provided for SMEs in these countries or regions to gain access to capital for growth and expansion, there are a wider range of investment options for private and corporate investors, and the potential boost to the small business sector can have far-reaching economic and social benefits, particularly in developing countries whose economies are often characterized by a high proportion of SMEs.  

International capital-raising for SMEs

Although some of the existing SME listing programs are targeted specifically at companies in domestic markets, a particularly exciting aspect of the new developments is that many listings are open to foreign issuers, creating enormous potential for transnational investment and global inter-connectivity in SME capital markets. This is in turn made possible by advances in IT and communications technology, including electronic payment systems such as Paypal and WorldPay, and electronic trading systems.  It was recently reported that internet share dealing has now overtaken traditional trading methods such as telephone or face-to-face trading, with the percentage of traders who used internet-based trading almost doubling from 28% in 2001 to 54% in 2005.[1] 

International capital-raising for SMEs

Although some of the existing SME listing programs are targeted specifically at companies in domestic markets, a particularly exciting aspect of the new developments is that many listings are open to foreign issuers, creating enormous potential for transnational investment and global inter-connectivity in SME capital markets. This is in turn made possible by advances in IT and communications technology, including electronic payment systems such as Paypal and WorldPay, and electronic trading systems.  It was recently reported that internet share dealing has now overtaken traditional trading methods such as telephone or face-to-face trading, with the percentage of traders who used internet-based trading almost doubling from 28% in 2001 to 54% in 2005.[1] 


[1] ‘Internet share dealing overtakes traditional trading methods’, Business Digest, Datamonitor UK, 30 August 2006.




World


      The MSCI World Index has been calculated since 1969, and we have extended the index back to 1919 on a price basis and 1925 on a return basis.  Since the World Index is a combination of all of the world’s indices, it can help us focus on the events that affected global stock markets and factor out purely national events.  Since the United States represents almost 50% of the world index, its influence on the index should not be ignored. Data are adjusted for inflation using the United States’ CPI.
      Measured on a global basis, the 1929-1932 bear market was clearly the worst stock market decline of the 20th Century with stocks falling by 63% on an inflation-adjusted return basis. There have been four other declines in global stocks of around 50%.  The first occurred after World War I between 1918 and 1919 when the post-war recession caused a 50% decline in stocks. A second decline of 50% occurred after World War II, largely because of the collapse in the price of European and Japanese shares due to the decimation caused by World War II and the inflation and problems that followed the end of the war. A third decline of 49% occurred during the 1973-1974 bear market, and the decline of 2000-2002 has been about 47%.  Other declines have been relatively modest.




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